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Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projected to reach 1 million by 2028::

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1 million by 2028, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 

These projections are based on a series of assumptions of future levels of fertility, paternity, mortality and internal migration, which are guided by recent population trends. 

ABS Demography Director, Beidar Cho, said: "Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent per year to reach around 1,072,000 people by 2031.

"This compares with a projected annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent for the total Australian population over the same period.

"Although younger than the general population, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is ageing. The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons aged 65 years and over is projected to double from 4 per cent in 2016 to 8 per cent in 2031."

Ms Cho added: "The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations in all states and territories are projected to continue to grow, although at varying rates."

Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population living in Major Cities is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent in Inner and Outer Regional Areas and 0.7 per cent in Remote and Very Remote Areas.

Further details are available in Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031 (cat. no. 3238.0).



Table 1: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a)(b), States and territories, 2016 - 2031


 

 

2031 SERIES A (high)

2031 SERIES B (medium)

2031 SERIES C (low)

 

2011
no.

2016
no.

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)


NSW

236 637

265 685

364 642

2.1

354 771

1.9

348 273

1.8

Vic.

52 848

57 767

85 986

2.7

83 606

2.5

81 993

2.4

Qld

198 776

221 276

312 639

2.3

304 395

2.1

299 292

2.0

SA

38 605

42 265

58 763

2.2

57 306

2.1

56 390

1.9

WA

92 097

100 512

138 244

2.1

134 895

2.0

132 980

1.9

Tas.

25 752

28 537

38 113

1.9

37 089

1.8

36 584

1.7

NT

68 231

74 546

90 078

1.3

88 170

1.1

87 588

1.1

ACT

6 894

7 513

11 638

3.0

11 324

2.8

11 155

2.7

Aust.(d)

720 093

798 365

1 100 427

2.2

1 071 871

2.0

1 054 569

1.9


(a) Estimates and projections based on the 2016 Census.
(b) Series A - high assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series B - medium (current) assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series C - low assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration. 
(c) Average annual growth rate for the period 2016 to 2031.

(d) Includes Other Territories.

The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1 million by 2028, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 

These projections are based on a series of assumptions of future levels of fertility, paternity, mortality and internal migration, which are guided by recent population trends. 

ABS Demography Director, Beidar Cho, said: "Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent per year to reach around 1,072,000 people by 2031.

"This compares with a projected annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent for the total Australian population over the same period.

"Although younger than the general population, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is ageing. The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons aged 65 years and over is projected to double from 4 per cent in 2016 to 8 per cent in 2031."

Ms Cho added: "The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations in all states and territories are projected to continue to grow, although at varying rates."

Based on medium series, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population living in Major Cities is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent, compared with 2.0 per cent in Inner and Outer Regional Areas and 0.7 per cent in Remote and Very Remote Areas.

Further details are available in Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031 (cat. no. 3238.0).



Table 1: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER POPULATION(a)(b), States and territories, 2016 - 2031


 

 

2031 SERIES A (high)

2031 SERIES B (medium)

2031 SERIES C (low)

 

2011
no.

2016
no.

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)

no.

Growth rate (%)(c)


NSW

236 637

265 685

364 642

2.1

354 771

1.9

348 273

1.8

Vic.

52 848

57 767

85 986

2.7

83 606

2.5

81 993

2.4

Qld

198 776

221 276

312 639

2.3

304 395

2.1

299 292

2.0

SA

38 605

42 265

58 763

2.2

57 306

2.1

56 390

1.9

WA

92 097

100 512

138 244

2.1

134 895

2.0

132 980

1.9

Tas.

25 752

28 537

38 113

1.9

37 089

1.8

36 584

1.7

NT

68 231

74 546

90 078

1.3

88 170

1.1

87 588

1.1

ACT

6 894

7 513

11 638

3.0

11 324

2.8

11 155

2.7

Aust.(d)

720 093

798 365

1 100 427

2.2

1 071 871

2.0

1 054 569

1.9


(a) Estimates and projections based on the 2016 Census.
(b) Series A - high assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series B - medium (current) assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration; Series C - low assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration. 
(c) Average annual growth rate for the period 2016 to 2031.

(d) Includes Other Territories.